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The Probability of Majority Inversion in a Two-stage Voting System with Three States (with A.Zaigraev)

Two-stage voting is prone to majority inversions, a situation in which the outcome of an election is not backed by a majority of popular votes. We study the probability of majority inversion in a model with two candidates, three states and uniformly distributed fractions of supporters for each candidate. The model encompasses equal or distinct population sizes, with equal, population-based or arbitrary voting weights in the second stage. We prove that, when no state can dictate the outcome of the election by commanding a voting weight in excess of one half, the probability of majority inversion increases with the size disparity among the states.

Estimating the Probability of Acting as a Trustee (with D.Stadelmann)

We introduce a binomial mixture model for estimating the probability of a representative acting as a delegate or a trustee. Our model also returns the probability of congruence of politicians with the national median voter. The estimated probability of congruence strongly correlates with the observed frequency of congruence obtained by matching parliamentary roll-call votes with the will of the median voter revealed in national referendums on identical legislative proposals. We thereby validate our estimation approach. Since our method uses the roll-call vote record of political representatives as sole input, it can be applied even if the will of the median voter is unknown.

The Optimal Use of Exhaustible Resources under Nonconstant Returns to Scale (with S.Aseev and K.Besov)

The paper offers a complete analysis of the welfare-maximizing capital investment and resource depletion policies in the Dasgupta--Heal--Solow--Stiglitz (DHSS) model with capital depreciation and any returns to scale. We establish a general existence result and show that an optimal admissible policy may not exist if the output elasticity of the resource equals one. We characterize the optimal policies by applying an appropriate version of the Pontryagin maximum principle for infinite-horizon optimal control problems. We finish the paper with an economic interpretation and a discussion of the welfare-maximizing policies.

SLIDES: Theorems for Exchangeable Binary Random Variables with Applications to Voting Theory

The slides summarize the main results of my research in collaboration with others on the Condorcet Jury Theorem and Voting Power for correlated votes

Priv.-Doz. Dr. Serguei Kaniovski

Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO)

Arsenal, Objekt 20

1030 Vienna



Phone: +431 / 798 26 01 - 231

Fax: +431 / 798 93 86

Email: serguei.kaniovski@wifo.ac.at